Black Friday 2022 predictions and how brands can get ahead

Black Friday 2022 predictions and how brands can get ahead

Black Friday 2022 is likely to be a slightly different experience for ecommerce brands this year, one that is heavily influenced by the turbulent economic environment.

Consumers have less to spend and brands will have to work harder than ever to win their custom, but it’s not all doom and gloom. A more challenging economic climate forces brands to think creatively, enhance their offerings and optimise their customer journey, which can have an immensely positive impact in the long run too.

Black Friday 2022 will fall on the 25th of November, and Cyber Monday will fall on the 28th of November. Although, as we all know, the sale season extends beyond these borders too.

We asked our Head of Ecommerce Strategy Natalia Howard about her Black Friday 2022 predictions and her advice on what brands can do to make the most of the BFCM weekend. This is what she said.


1. Brands will offer bigger discounts to attract a smaller pool of customers


Natalia’s first Black Friday 2022 prediction is that as a result of the cost of living crisis, the pool of customers who are prepared to spend money this year will be smaller. In response to less demand, brands will probably offer bigger discounts to attract customers.

The cost of living crisis has had a drastic impact on consumer spending this year, which will continue into the Black Friday and holiday period.

According to a report by Attest earlier this year, 28% of Brits anticipate that their online spending will decrease in the next 6 months, and the 50.7% who say their spending will stay the same will likely have less spending power, meaning they can afford less.

This means that heading into Black Friday 2022, people are spending less and looking for cheaper alternatives to their favourite products when they do shop.

Brands will have to work harder than they did last year to achieve the same results. But what should they do?


How brands can maximise the value of their customers 


Black Friday 2022 predictions


Natalia Howard, Head of Ecommerce Strategy, Underwaterpistol


This BFCM, the pool of consumers will be smaller, so it’s more important than ever to get the most out of every customer.

The rising cost of customer acquisition makes it essential to maximise the value of customers who visit your website by making efforts to boost average order values and your conversion rate. There are a few different ways to do this, including:

  • Combining a strong discount with a high average order value, rather than letting discounting compromise your AOV. A deal like “spend £100 to get 40% off” is great for this.
  • Making efforts to bring people back to your site who have already expressed an interest in your products. For example, setting up an abandoned cart email flow will help to re-engage users who began the checkout process. This would be a great place to offer a discount or free delivery as well, to help those users make the decision to buy.
  • Starting paid social campaigns early enough for you to build up audiences and using social media to tease activity.
  • Dedicating time to CRO to make the most of the traffic that’s already coming to your site.


2. Sales will start earlier and run for longer


Over the past few years, there’s been a trend among retailers to start Black Friday sales much earlier. For Black Friday 2022, Natalia predicts we’ll see the same trend.

It’s no wonder really. 83% of consumers say they start their holiday shopping much earlier than Black Friday. In response, according to Adobe, 75% of retailers began offering discounts before Black Friday in 2020.

This year, there’s even more of an incentive to start sales earlier, as many brands will have a lot of stock to clear after a tough year. 


How to avoid falling into an endless cycle of discounting


Black Friday 2022 predictions


Natalia Howard, Head of Ecommerce Strategy, Underwaterpistol


With consumers expecting sales to extend well beyond the BFCM period, and some brands having a lot of stock to clear this year, it can be easy to fall into an endless cycle of discounting, even after Black Friday.

This is a slippery slope that could make future sales less effective and make it really difficult to encourage customers to pay full price again.

To avoid this but still make the most of the excitement of the Black Friday weekend, be strict with your calendar and have a sale plan in place. It might be worth considering segmentation to avoid offering blanket discounts and instead only offering them to certain segments of your customer base who have proven to be ‘sale shoppers’. You could also reward your loyal customers with early access to your sale.

My advice to brands is to not put all your eggs in one basket for Black Friday 2022. As a result of consumers being more savvy with their spending this year, they might choose to spread out their purchases over a longer period to make it more manageable. Put a strategy in place that makes the most of Black Friday but doesn’t become reliant on it.


3. Great UX will be essential this year


As we’re already touched on, this BFCM will be very competitive. People are more price conscious which means they’ll be less brand loyal, more likely to shop around and less likely than ever to put up with a naff website.

It costs a lot of money to get people on your site so brands need to ensure they deliver a seamless journey, making it quick and easy for customers to find what they’re looking for and get through to checkout without any friction. 

If your site’s visitors are greeted with a slow, clunky and visually unappealing website, there’s a good chance they’ll leave.

You’ll probably get a spike in traffic around Black Friday, so now is the ideal time to optimise your site for maximum conversions. Offering an exceptional customer experience is a key step in Black Friday marketing because it’s something that will help you stand out from your competitors and, ultimately, sell more.


Get set for sale season


Here at Underwaterpistol, we specialise in growing best-in-class ecommerce brands, working strategically to create stand-out customer experiences and optimise sites to sell.

If you need some extra support going into sale season, we’re here to help. Our specialist team would love to chat through your challenges and present solutions that will ensure you’re set for success for Black Friday 2022. Get in touch now.